Patrice Talon has now completed two terms in office, in line with Benin’s constitutional limit. As a result, he is expected to step down at the next election. But many suspect that he will seek to remain a political “backseat driver”, shaping the presidency from behind the scenes through allies and institutions he has carefully put in place for precisely that purpose.

That possibility matters not only for Benin, once widely seen as one of West Africa’s more democratic states, but also for a region already grappling with democratic backsliding, military coups, and rising insecurity. It is also especially timely. In a region where leaders have repeatedly manipulated constitutions, extended mandates, or simply refused to leave office, Benin should have offered a reassuring example of democratic restraint. Instead, the central question is no longer simply whether Talon will leave office, but whether alternation in office will amount to alternation in power.

The issue is thrown into sharp relief by the succession itself. The ruling party’s candidate, Romuald Wadagni, who is widely tipped to win, was personally handpicked by Talon. The other leading candidate, a polarising opposition figure, is also widely believed to be aligned with him. Whoever emerges victorious in the presidential election on April 12, Talon’s shadow is likely to loom large over the next administration.

The Authoritarian Drift and Clampdown on Political Pluralism

Over the past decade, a series of controversial political reforms introduced by the Talon administration have tilted the playing field decisively in favour of the ruling party coalition in every Beninese election. When parliamentary and municipal elections scheduled for January 2026 went ahead despite an attempted coup the previous month, this briefly appeared to signal the resilience of Benin’s constitutional order. But that more optimistic reading quickly faded when it became clear that the coalition led by the Talon administration had won every seat in the National Assembly, while opposition parties were not even allowed to compete in the municipal elections.

This gave further weight to an argument advanced by analysts in the wake of international condemnation of the attempted coup: that the real coup in Benin had, in many ways, already taken place under the Talon administration. Rather than a dramatic seizure of power, it has taken the form of a steady authoritarian drift that has emboldened intolerance of dissent, restricted freedoms of speech and expression, and raised formidable barriers to political pluralism.

Is Talon Really Leaving Power?

Whatever hope there was that Talon’s departure might signal democratic renewal has been clouded by his expected move to assume a seat in a Senate he ratified into existence in the National Assembly barely two weeks after the attempted coup. Packed with ex officio members, including former presidents of the republic, the National Assembly, and the Constitutional Court, and vested with powers that rival those of the presidency, this Senate raises troubling questions about where power in Benin will actually lie after 2026. It suggests that Talon may be leaving the presidency without truly leaving power.

In recent years, leaders determined to hold on to power have devised increasingly creative ways to circumvent constitutional term limits, often at considerable cost to political stability. The consequences have included gross human rights violations, the proliferation of coups, and the erosion of state institutions. Over the past decade, versions of this pattern have appeared in Guinea, Senegal, Togo, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Chad, and even in global powers such as Russia, posing serious challenges to sustainable governance.

Read more: https://democracyinafrica.org/the-real-coup-in-benin-succession-without-political-change/

Source: Democracy In Africa